Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is having a difficult start to 2025 as he is forced to confront a transactional American government, the ongoing dispute with China over territorial waters, and a long-running feud with his Vice President Sara Duterte.
The domestic political dispute reached a new low on February 7, when the Philippines House of Representatives advanced impeachment proceedings against Duterte for a number of offenses, including corruption and threatening the lives of President Marcos, the first lady and the lower house speaker. Duterte's legal team is preparing her defense and deciding on how to contest the impeachment proceedings, but she told her supporters to “have faith” that she will prevail, according to Philippines news reports.
The rift with Duterte will likely haunt Marcos for several more months, as her removal from office will require a decision from the Senate, which will not convene until June. Legal challenges may follow. Even if Duterte is impeached, and therefore cannot run for office again, the loyal supporters of her family may continue to undermine the remainder of the Marcos administration.
On the international front, the new Trump administration presents a multitude of uncertainties for one of America's closest allies in the Asia-Pacific. The Philippines counts on US support to counter Chinese military presence in disputed waters. The Lowey Institute pointed out that Trump's transactional foreign policy might reduce the Philippines to a “pawn in a great power bargain” as the US President seeks to reset relations with China. To that end, the Philippines is “bracing for the possible loss of half a billion dollars in promised US military aid under President Donald Trump” and the possibility of being left “on the sidelines” in any security negotiations between the two major powers, according to the South China Morning Post.
With uncertainty at home and abroad, the Marcos administration is likely to seek new alliances and strengthen ties with its regional neighbors, what the Lowey Institute calls a “multi-aligned approach that lessens its dependence on Washington.” This turbulence creates a unique opportunity for regional Asian businesses to fill any void left by the potential retreat of US influence, especially in sectors like defense, infrastructure, and technology. However, US businesses should not retreat from the Philippines, as its strategic location and growing consumer market still offer substantial long-term growth potential, and maintaining strong ties will be crucial for both economic and geopolitical stability in the Asia-Pacific.
The Philippines Vice President Sara Duterte is weighing a run for the presidency as she prepares to fight impeachment. In her first public comments since the country’s House of Representatives approved the impeachment this week, the 46-year-old said on Friday that the case is now in the hands of her lawyers, adding that her father, 79-year-old former president and lawyer Rodrigo Duterte, is welcome to join her defence team “if he wants to”.
